New report finds US greatly undercounted coronavirus cases

The US greatly undercounted coronavirus cases at the beginning of the pandemic, missing 90% of them – mostly because of a lack of testing, a new study finds.

The research, published in the journal Nature Communications, supports the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s own estimates that 90% of cases have been missed.

The United States may have experienced over 6.4 million cases of COVID-19 by 18 April 2020, according to a probability analysis published in Nature Communications. In the same period, there were 721,245 confirmed cases. 

By mid-April, the US probably already had more than 6 million cases of coronavirus, the team at the University of California Berkeley estimated. That’s just about what the current official count is now, four months later. 

Researchers Jade Benjamin-Chung and colleagues used a statistical method known as Bayesian probabilistic bias analysis to account for incomplete testing and less than perfect test accuracy. They went through actual case counts in each state and accounted for likely undercounts to calculate what the true number of cases should have been.

In June, CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said his agency had likely undercounted cases by a factor of 10.

They said 86% of the difference was due to incomplete testing, and 14% due to imperfect test accuracy. Incomplete testing was a result of policy.

“For the first few months of the pandemic, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that physicians prioritize testing hospitalized patients, who tend to have moderate to severe symptoms,” the team wrote.

“Yet, evidence from studies that conducted broader testing suggest that 30–70% of individuals who test positive have mild or no symptoms and that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic individuals can transmit SARS-CoV-2,” they added.

“Thus, a substantial number of mild or asymptomatic infections in the U.S. may be undetected.”

Even so, most people in the US have yet to have been infected. “Even in a best-case scenario in which SARS-CoV-2 infection produces immunity for 1–2 years, as is common for other betacoronaviruses, our results contribute to growing consensus that a very small proportion of the population has developed immunity and that the U.S. is not close to achieving herd immunity,” they concluded.

Kristin Urquiza. Source: CNN

A woman who captured the nation's attention in a blistering speech at the Democratic National Convention late last month, once again held President Trump responsible for her father's death, and calling on him to resign. 

"In late May ... I was telling my dad, 'look, dad, it's still not safe,'" said Kristin Urquiza, speaking of her late father, Mark Urquiza, who she said was a Trump supporter before he died of the virus in June.

"I couldn't compete with the lies from the White House and because of that, my father passed away," she told CNN's Erin Burnett this evening. "It is inexcusable ... He trusted him and the President betrayed him and tens of thousand of other people."

Urquiza said there was nothing the President or administration could do to right the wrongs of its handling of the pandemic short of vacating the White House.

Watch the interview:

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer listens as Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at a campaign event on manufacturing and buying American-made products at UAW Region 1 headquarters in Warren, Michigan, on Wednesday, Sept. 9. Patrick Semansky/AP

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer signed an executive order today clarifying face covering requirements for organized sports, according to a news release from her office today.

The order specifies that athletes must wear a face covering at all times during training, practices and competitions if a distance of six feet cannot be maintained.

The order provided examples of soccer, volleyball and football as sports where athletes are not able to stay six feet apart so a face covering would be required.

The global death toll from the novel coronavirus surpassed 900,000 this evening, according to Johns Hopkins University's tally.

There have been 900,079 deaths worldwide. The United States has accounted for 190,649 coronavirus-related deaths, the most around the world. 

The total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases around the world stands at 27,695,130, according to the university.

Kentucky hit a “tough and unfortunate milestone today” with more than 1,000 total deaths recorded from Covid-19, Gov. Andy Beshear announced in a news conference.

As way to honor those Kentuckians lost to Covid-19, Beshear said there would be a wreath-laying ceremony tomorrow in the Rotunda by the Kentucky State Police Honor Guard.

Beshear has also ordered all flags on all state buildings in the commonwealth to be flown at half-staff beginning tomorrow for a week “to recognize again those more than 1,000 Kentuckians we have lost."

Kentucky had 16 new deaths from Covid-19 for a total of 1,004 deaths and 667 new cases for a total of 53,977, Beshear added.

To note: These numbers were released by Beshear, and may not line up exactly in real time with CNN’s database drawn from Johns Hopkins University and the Covid Tracking Project.

Erin Scott/Pool/Getty Images

The decision to pause AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine trial because of a potential adverse event in one volunteer shows the safety monitoring system is working, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Wednesday.

When there is a serious adverse event, “this is the kind of thing that you’d like to see,” he said.

“Mechanisms are put into place to stop everything, no more enrollment until you can figure out what’s going on and you can alert other people in the sites. Did they see anything either similar to or identical to this, is this a one-off, is this a fluke, or is this something that’s real and that we have to pay attention to?" Fauci added.

Americans should feel reassured, he said. They can “feel comfort that when there is an adverse event, it becomes very transparent and it becomes investigated and the trial is halted until we can clarify that.”

Source: Pool

Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner announced Wednesday that he has been working with the health department and the special events office to formulate health and safety protocols to "cautiously" restart live special events in the city. 

Turner made clear he would not approve events in uncontrolled spaces or venues. 

"There are events that will be unable to successfully take place at this time," he said. 

Each event request will be reviewed, and strict guidelines must be met prior to approval, according to Turner. 

"The Houston Dynamo and Dash have just announced that they will host their game series for the first time this year with less than 25% capacity in the stadium," the mayor said.

A sign is posted on the entrance to an Arizona State University building in Tempe, Arizona, on June 1. James Ahmed/Shutterstoc

Arizona State University announced Wednesday it will start reporting Covid-19 cumulative cases among students, faculty and staff, according to President Michael Crow.

The announcement came during a news briefing where university leadership addressed questions from the media about not including this metric in the reports it publishes on its website. Instead, the university has been reporting total known positive cases.

Some context: On Monday, the university said that as of Sunday, there were 807 total known positives among students out of a student body of 74,500.

These numbers do not include online students. The university also reported a total of 18 known positive cases among 12,400 faculty and staff members. As of Sunday, the university reported it had collected tests results from approximately 48,152 students and employees since Aug. 1.

Public health guidelines surrounding Halloween in Los Angeles are being revised from a ban on trick-or-treating, to simply a recommendation that people don’t go door-to-door on Halloween.

Though trick-or-treating typically takes place outdoors, Ferrer cautioned that there's no guarantee that when you go trick-or-treating the person opening the door will be wearing a mask, that the person is not sick or that they haven't touched the candy being offered.

L.A. County Sheriff Alex Villanueva said his deputies will not be enforcing the issue.

“We’re going to leave that alone. We want parents out there to practice some common sense,” he said live on Facebook. “By the time October 31 rolls around, let’s see what the conditions are at that time. And if there’s some type of trick-or-treating that will be permissible, that’s going to be up to the public health experts on that.”