Key model now projects more than 371,000 US Covid-19 deaths by Jan. 1

An influential coronavirus model has updated its projection to 371,509 deaths by Jan. 1 -- a drop of about 7,000 deaths from projections about a week ago.

The model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine is also predicting 3,000 coronavirus deaths a day by the end of the year. 

The forecast is projecting 2.5 million global deaths by Jan. 1, but that number drops to 1.8 million if 95% of the world’s population wore masks, researchers said.

When factoring in mask usage by 95% of the US population, the number of cumulative deaths drop to 275,000 by Jan. 1, saving nearly 100,000 lives between September and late December, according to the model. However, national mask use is closer to 48%, researchers said, making it doubtful the US will be able to significantly drop the death toll.

Twelve states are now seeing mask usage rates above 50% -- California, Washington, Colorado, Texas, Mississippi, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, IHME said.

Mexico’s Health Ministry reported 490 new Covid-19 deaths on Thursday, raising the country’s death toll to 75,439.

The ministry also reported 5,408 new Covid-19 cases, bringing the nationwide total to 715,457.

Mexico’s Covid-19 death toll is the second highest in Latin America, following only that of Brazil, according to Johns Hopkins University.

CNN is tracking worldwide coronavirus cases:

The Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the World Health Organization will hurt the United States, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in an interview with Time posted Thursday.

“Withdrawing from WHO actually hurts the US, because being part of WHO is not just to help those who need support,” said Tedros. “The US also benefits from being a member of WHO.” 

Tedros told Time that when he first heard that the United States was withdrawing from WHO, he didn’t believe it. He said he had a “very cordial” conversation with US President Donald Trump on March 23, in which there was no hint that the US was planning a withdrawal. 

Tedros said the consequences of the decision are still unclear.

“I don't see the membership or the relationship with the US as a financial transaction. It's not the money which matters. It's actually the global leadership of the US,” Tedros said.

He noted that when battling the coronavirus pandemic, nations are stronger together.

“One of the impacts which may be visible is, you know, the global solidarity is weak. Major global powers are not working together,” Tedros said.

An ensemble forecast published Thursday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now projects there will be 214,000 to 226,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States by Oct. 17.

Unlike some individual models, the CDC’s ensemble forecast only offers projections a few weeks into the future. The previous ensemble forecast, published Sept. 17, projected up to 218,000 coronavirus deaths by Oct. 10.

At least 202,344 people have already died from Covid-19 in the United States, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

The United Kingdom has recorded 6,634 new coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours -- the highest daily increase since the start of the pandemic, Public Health England tweeted on Thursday. 

At least 416,363 total cases have now been confirmed across the country, Public Health England tweeted. 

“This is the highest number recorded and a stark warning for us all. The signals are clear. Positivity rates are rising across all age groups and we’re continuing to see spikes in rates of admission to hospital and critical care," said Yvonne Doyle, the medical director at Public Health England.

Forty more fatalities were reported on Thursday, bringing the total death toll to at least 41,902.  

While confirmed Covid-19 cases and death rates remain low in many African countries, early results in some communities suggest a higher number of infections than those reported, said Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, the WHO Regional Director for Africa.

The swift action of governments on the continent to impose early lockdowns, and the public's general adherence to movement restrictions, created a "window of opportunity" to keep cases low, Moeti said. Since many countries have begun easing restrictions and opening economies back up, there has been an uptick of cases.

But experts are unable to conclusively explain the low death rates on the continent. "We don't know the exact factors that are causing it, we just know that some of the factors are more probable," said Dr. Sam Agatre Okuonzi from Uganda.

The panel described probable factors such as a majority youthful population, the frequency with which many Africans spend outdoors and the less movement and interaction in rural areas, as potential explanations. 

Another potential factor scientists are studying is the level of potential cross-immunity that has developed from exposure to previous coronaviruses. 

"Research is required to characterize the disease and the pandemic in Africa and this work is just beginning," Okuonzi said.